National Weather Service Forecast for: Nags Head NC Issued by: National Weather Service Morehead City, NC

Updated: 10:03 pm EDT May 18, 2024

Nags+Head, NC

Overnight Low: 58 °F Sunday High: 62 °F Sunday Night Low: 57 °F Monday High: 65 °F Monday Night Low: 58 °F Tuesday High: 69 °F Tuesday Night Low: 61 °F Wednesday High: 75 °F Wednesday Night Low: 66 °F Chance Showers Chance Showers and Breezy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy and Breezy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Sunny Mostly Clear Sunny Mostly Clear

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Beach Hazards Statement
 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Nags Head NC.

600
FXUS62 KMHX 190233
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1033 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system and its associated fronts impact ENC this
evening before pushing offshore by Sunday morning bringing
unsettled weather to the area. High pressure ridging then builds
in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week
before the next potential frontal system late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Saturday...The front has pushed through the area and
is now close to the NC/SC border along with an outflow boundary
generated by this evening`s storms. Convection is ongoing south
of HWY 70 with areas north experiencing stratiform rain. The
most favorable environment to support strong to severe storms
will continue to push south and east with the front as it moves
offshore tonight. Areas near the coast and offshore have the
greatest chance of seeing strong to severe storms, although the
threat is diminishing with northerly winds building in. The main
hazards of concern continue to be gusty winds, heavy rainfall,
and small hail. Showers will start to taper off from NW to SE
late tonight with lows dipping to the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday... Upper level trough will be centered
over the Mid-Atlantic to start our day out with this trough
pushing offshore by SUn evening. Mid level shortwave will also
push offshore by SUn evening as well. AT the surface low
pressure off the coast will continue to push further out to seas
as high pressure wedges itself across the Carolinas from the
north bringing dry air to the region. Latest trends have come in
drier for SUnday as it looks like the low will be farther away
from the coast than previously thought which limits moisture
availability across the area. As a result have lowered PoP`s to
SChc across just about all of the area with further reductions
possible in coming updates. Otherwise steady NE`rly flow will
keep temps on the cooler side with highs only getting into the
60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sat...High pressure builds in from the north for
the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from
the west toward the latter half of the week.

Sunday night...Drier conditions ensue Sun night with lows in the
50s.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid-
Atlantic. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with
steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 70s,
then by Tue and esp Wed into Thu, rise through the 80s and back
above climo. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise
into the 60s by mid week.

Friday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a
shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s
end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a
warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this
far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday morning/...
As of 8 PM Saturday...A tricky forecast persists through much
of the period. Ceilings will lower to low-end IFR (if not LIFR)
from NE to SW through early Saturday morning. Periods of reduced
visibility are also expected during this time with shower and
thunderstorm activity in the area through the morning. Ceilings
will recover slowly tomorrow. Far western terminals should
approach MVFR ceilings by the end of the period, but eastern
terminals (especially those along the OBX) could keep low-end
MVFR ceilings through the period. The wind field will become
northeasterly across the board over the next few hours (10 kt
coastal plain, 15 kt OBX). Tomorrow, winds increase to around
10-15 kt across the coastal plain and 15-20 kt across the OBX.

LONG TERM /Sun afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A low pressure system will impact the area
through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions. Pred
VFR conditions are expected early through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 330 PM Saturday... Quasi stationary warm front stretches
from NW to SE across the Pamlico SOund and adjacent coastal
waters this afternoon and shouldn`t move much until a developing
low pressure system to the west quickly tracks E`wards tonight
and brings this front south as a cold front tonight. To the
south of the front, 5-10 kt SW`rly winds with 1-3 ft seas are
noted while to the north of the front 5-10 kt NE`rly winds and
2-4 ft seas are noted this afternoon. Widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop along this boundary
this evening, the strongest of which could produce gusty winds
of 34kt+ and small hail. As the low pushes offshore and the
front moves S`wards precip chances will lower after 06Z and
winds across all waters will shift from north to south to a
NE`rly direction and increase with widespread 15-25 kt NE`rly
winds with gusts up to 25- 20 kts expected across just about all
of our waters except the Pamlico/Pungo River. As a result, have
small crafts just about everywhere to account for this N`rly
surge. Elevated N`rly winds continue into Sun evening.

Seas will begin to build to 3-6 ft Saturday night into Sunday
morning within the strengthening northeasterly surge of wind behind
the departing low and remain around 3-6 ft with some 7 ft seas
possibly noted along the outer coastal waters Sun afternoon and
evening.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A complex low pressure system will shift off
of the NC coast during the day Sun, with gusty nerly winds in
it`s wake. Solid SCA cond expected across all waters and sounds,
including Alligator River, through Sunday as winds inc to 20-30
kt. SCA cond linger into Monday evening for Pamlico Sound and
the coastal waters as moderately gusty ne winds keep seas
elevated and wind gusts aoa 25 kt. Seas expected to drop below 6
ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 340 PM Sat...A warm front will stall northwest to
southeast along and just south of hwy 264 (including Greenville)
this evening, with the potential for convection to train along
the boundary. If this occurs, max QPF guidance suggests rainfall
amounts as high as 3-5". This may occur over a relatively small
area, but is noteworthy coming on the heels of the recent round
of rain. Where/if this occurs, there would be a locally higher
risk of hydro/flash flooding concerns, and we`ll be closely
monitoring this potential.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
     evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ152.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...TL/RCF
AVIATION...TL/RCF/OJC
MARINE...TL/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion