| National Weather Service Forecast for:
Hilton Head Island SC Issued by: National Weather Service Charleston, SC |
||||||||||||||||||
| Updated: 3:13 am EDT May 19, 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Hilton+Head+Island, SC | ||||||||||||||||||
|
| Overnight |
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southwest wind 3 to 5 mph. |
| Sunday |
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. High near 81. West wind around 6 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. |
| Sunday Night |
Showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a slight chance of showers between midnight and 1am. Low around 66. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. |
| Monday |
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Northeast wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
| Monday Night |
Mostly clear, with a low around 65. East wind 7 to 9 mph. |
| Tuesday |
Sunny, with a high near 81. |
| Tuesday Night |
Clear, with a low around 67. |
| Wednesday |
Sunny, with a high near 84. |
| Wednesday Night |
Mostly clear, with a low around 70. |
| Thursday |
Sunny, with a high near 87. |
| Thursday Night |
Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. |
| Friday |
Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. |
| Friday Night |
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. |
| Saturday |
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Hilton Head Island SC.
380 FXUS62 KCHS 190501 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 101 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather continues ahead of a cold front that will cross the area later Sunday. High pressure then dominates through much of the coming week, with another storm system potentially impacting the area late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Early overnight: Some semblance of a low level convergence axis and moisture gradient is apparent from the SC coastal waters down through northern Florida while convectively induced short-wave is advancing northeastward out of northern Florida. Combination has kicked off renewed convection across the coastal waters down through the Altamaha, and points south along with a few showers skirting the upper Charleston County region. Showers/storms will slowly progress into the Atlantic waters through the overnight. Pops/weather have been adjusted accordingly. More pronounced short-wave circulation is sagging into the northern Alabama/Georgia region with some additional convective activity across northern SC. That activity should remain out of our area overnight. Short-wave will be firing off more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area later today. Otherwise, patchy fog could develop inland, but elevated winds just of the surface could limit coverage and promote more in the way of stratus. Lows will range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be over the Southeast U.S. in the morning. It`ll slowly shift offshore into the evening and overnight. The dominate cold front will be stretched along the SC coast and the I-16 corridor in the morning with ridging building in from the north and west behind it. This diffuse front may get hung up in the sea breeze if it is still nearby come midday, providing enhanced initiation for convection. The main story for Sunday has become the clear threat for heavy rainfall. Deep moisture will remain in place across the region with PWATs in the 1.5-2.0" range. These values are above the 90% mark per SPC sounding climatology for CHS. They`re also about 2 standard deviations above normal per NAEFS. With all of the moisture and lift in place, models are in good agreement that widespread showers will develop with increasing instability come midday. Very slow storm motions - less than 10 mph - and very high rain rates - perhaps on the order of 2 to 3 inches per hour - could bring localized rainfall amounts up to 3-4+ inches over the course of several hours in the afternoon. The flooding threat will be enhanced for areas that received 1-2+ inches from Beaufort County to the I-16 corridor and south on Saturday. Monday: The mid-levels will consist of a positively tilted trough just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning, and a ridge just to our west. The ridge will slowly build into our area as time progresses. At the surface, High pressure centered well to our north will build down the coast, with it`s southern periphery making its way into our area. The High will bring drier conditions with skies becoming mostly sunny/clear. Low-level thickness values support temperatures in the middle 80s. But we went a little below this due to the northeasterly surface winds and the expectation that surface evaporation should limit temperatures. Highs should peak in the lower 80s. Lows should range from the upper 50s far inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast. Tuesday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning, while a ridge will prevail over the Southeast U.S. High pressure centered just to our north in the morning will shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast as the day progresses. Though, it`s southern periphery will continue to dominate our weather. Subsidence will yield dry conditions with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures should rise to near normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid-level ridging will be over our region through Wednesday, followed by southwest flow on Thursday. A weak trough may pass to our north on Friday. Broad surface High pressure will stretch from just to our north into the Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. It`s expected to shift offshore later Thursday. A cold front could approach from the northwest later Friday, possibly bringing showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be trending higher, reaching into the 90s by Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Largely VFR conditions anticipated through the overnight hours although with an increased risk for MVFR cigs as daybreak approaches. There could be a little ground fog that develops, mainly at KSAV and possibly KJZI, but the best fog/stratus parameters look to remain to the west of all three terminals. The risk for showers/tstms will increase during the day Sunday as a cold front moves through. The best focus for showers/tstms looks to settle just south of KCHS and impacting KJZI and KSAV. A TEMPO for TSRA was included from 18-21z at KCHS to account for some coverage/timing uncertainties. Prevailing TSRA was mentioned for both KJZI (18-21z) and KSAV (20-00z). Conditions were limited to MVFR for now with both cigs/vsbys holding above alternate minimums. However, lower conditions may eventually be needed as confidence in the timing, placement and intensity of showers/tstms increases. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Tonight: The sfc pattern should support south winds between 10 to 15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Sunday through Thursday: A weak cold front nearby will bring the potential for showers and storms with heavy rainfall and lightning Sunday afternoon. The cold front will push offshore later Sunday, with ridging building inland and troughing persisting well offshore through mid-week. The strongest gradient will occur on Monday morning, with wind gusts to around 20 kt possible across much of the coastal waters, and seas increasing to 3-5 ft (in mainly windswell) accordingly. The gradient then gradually weakens and seas gradually subside as the inland high becomes more dominate Tuesday and Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The combination of high astronomical tide levels and moderate to breezy NE winds will bring the potential for elevated tide levels early next week. Minor flooding is possible with the early evening high tide Monday mainly along the South Carolina coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$
