National Weather Service Forecast for:
Palm Beach Shores FL Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida |
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Updated: 3:17 am EDT May 19, 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||
Palm Beach Shores, FL | ||||||||||||||||||
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Overnight |
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Southwest wind around 9 mph. |
Sunday |
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Heat index values as high as 100. Southwest wind 7 to 9 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Sunday Night |
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southeast wind 7 to 9 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Monday |
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 7am. High near 87. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. |
Monday Night |
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Low around 74. North wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. |
Tuesday |
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Sunny, with a high near 85. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. |
Tuesday Night |
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Mostly clear, with a low around 75. East wind 6 to 9 mph. |
Wednesday |
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am. Sunny, with a high near 85. East wind 6 to 11 mph. |
Wednesday Night |
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 75. East wind 6 to 10 mph. |
Thursday |
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Sunny, with a high near 85. |
Thursday Night |
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly clear, with a low around 76. |
Friday |
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 87. |
Friday Night |
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 76. |
Saturday |
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 88. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Palm Beach Shores FL.
059 FXUS62 KMFL 190627 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 227 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 The mid-lvl ridge which has been positioned over SFL the last couple days will be displaced southeast of the area today as a pronounced shortwave trough shifts southeastward toward the area (along with some lower-amplitude convectively-enhanced perturbations). At the surface, low pressure will develop off the FL/GA coast with a warm but relatively weak southwesterly flow prevailing over SFL, which should help pin the east coast sea breeze near the immediate coast (and perhaps not even progressing inland at all). The encroaching shortwave will result in both cooling mid-lvl temperatures and also increasing mid-lvl W-SWrly flow, which will support an increasingly favorable convective parameter space over portions of SFL this afternoon. Surface temperatures should once again increase well into the 90s which along with seasonably cool 500mb temps (-9/-10C) will result in steep lapse rates through the lower troposphere with SBCAPE values in excess of 3000-3500 J/kg along with DCAPE > 1200 J/kg progged. As mid-lvl flow increases, 0-6km bulk shear will likely increase to over 40 kts over northern portions of the area this afternoon which would favor organized multi-cell clusters with isolated supercells possible, particularly along any east coast sea breeze where shear will locally be enhanced. The main questions regarding convective evolution and the overall severe threat will be the presence of increasing synoptic cloud cover ahead of the approaching wave along with the potential evolution/inland progression of the east coast sea breeze. Even with those question marks, given the aforementioned environment, there exists a (greater than climo) risk of large hail, damaging winds, and potentially even an isolated tornado (mostly dependent upon the sea breeze) with afternoon thunderstorms. The best chances of severe storms look to be over Palm Beach and Broward counties where the most favorable intersection between the increasing forcing, the sea breeze progression, and diurnal timing appears to exist. This coincides with the latest day 1 outlook from SPC which places a slight risk over northern portions of the east coast, largely driven by the wind and hail risk. The other concern of the day will be excessive heat as the hot air mass remains in place. It won`t quite be as oppressive as yesterday (which basically featured record high heat indices for May) but peak apparent temperatures of 106-110 degrees look probable for at least Miami-Dade and Broward counties, so another heat advisory has been issued for those locations. Given that cloud cover and rain chances will increase by early afternoon over northern portions of the area, suspect that these areas should largely remain below advisory criteria. That being said, would not be surprised to see localized readings near advisory levels in portions of Collier and PB counties particularly if convection/cloud cover is slower to move in than currently forecast. The weak low will remain over the Atlantic on Monday and a weak frontal boundary will shift southward towards the area. This, along with the once again pinned east coast sea breeze will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms once again, although reduced instability and gradually decreasing large-scale ascent (as the trough shifts east) should support a lower risk of severe storms than Sunday. Although temperatures and heat indices will remain above normal, they should be a few degrees lower than Sunday so heat headlines are not expected. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 The weak cold front should finally make it through the area on Tuesday although a trailing shortwave will likely support at least scattered showers and storms particularly over southern portions of the area closer to the boundary. Mid-lvl ridging should then build into the area for the mid-late week period, with generally light easterly surface flow prevailing as weak high pressure builds into the Atlantic. Drier air and the presence of the ridge will keep PoPs lower than the early week period (largely in the isolated-scattered category), with the synoptic easterly flow favoring the highest PoPs over the Interior and SW Florida. The easterly flow will result in cooler (but still above average) high temperatures over SEFL (mostly upper 80s) while low to mid 90s can be expected over SWFL and the Interior. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 L/V winds overnight before sea-breeze circulations pick up after sunrise. SHRA/TSRA will develop along boundaries and could impact terminals bringing sub-MVFR cigs/vis as well as erratic wind shifts, especially during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Mainly benign marine conditions are expected over the period with light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow expected today which will generally shift to the northwest on Monday as a cold front approaches. Scattered to Numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected today, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 77 91 75 / 50 70 80 50 West Kendall 95 75 92 72 / 40 70 80 40 Opa-Locka 94 77 92 75 / 50 70 80 50 Homestead 94 77 92 74 / 40 70 80 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 77 89 75 / 60 70 80 50 N Ft Lauderdale 92 77 90 75 / 70 60 80 50 Pembroke Pines 95 77 93 75 / 60 70 80 50 West Palm Beach 92 74 89 72 / 70 60 80 50 Boca Raton 93 75 91 74 / 70 60 80 50 Naples 91 77 89 74 / 50 50 50 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carr LONG TERM....Carr AVIATION...Hadi