| National Weather Service Forecast for:
Shalimar FL Issued by: National Weather Service Mobile, AL |
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| Updated: 2:45 am CDT May 27, 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Shalimar, FL | ||||||||||||||||||
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| This Afternoon |
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. South wind around 10 mph. |
| Tonight |
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
| Wednesday |
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday Night |
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
| Thursday |
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Light southwest wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
| Thursday Night |
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
| Friday |
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 85. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. |
| Friday Night |
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. North wind 5 to 10 mph. |
| Saturday |
Sunny, with a high near 84. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. |
| Saturday Night |
Mostly clear, with a low around 66. |
| Sunday |
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. |
| Sunday Night |
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. |
| Monday |
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Shalimar FL.
262 FXUS64 KMOB 271803 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA 103 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Latest water vapor imagery shows a trough over the Plains with upper ridging along the East Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front trails from its parent low over the TN Valley, southwestward into SE TX. Closer to home, deep southwesterly flow will continue to filter in moisture across the area, with PW values topping out near 2 inches which exceeds the 90th percentile. Given the moisture in place and lingering outflow boundaries from earlier storms, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the predawn hours, though our better rain chances will come later today. A QLCS, currently moving across east Texas, will propagate to the southeast over the next few hours. The current trajectory suggests that this QLCS will move over the Gulf, with the northern extent dissipating before it reaches the area. Meanwhile, guidance is consistent on bringing a shortwave into the region this morning, lifting northeast of the area by the afternoon. The airmass will remain fairly unstable, as daytime heating allows highs to warm into the upper 80s. As the shortwave moves through, weak height falls will allow for lapse rates to steepen aloft, lending upwards of 2000- 3000 sbcape. At the same time, a 30-40kt low level jet will move across our northern counties, with 0-1 km bulk shear increasing to 20-30 kts this afternoon. Given this set up and the timing, confidence has increased on the threat for severe thunderstorms across the area. Timing is a bit tricky; however, based on current guidance, the better chance for severe thunderstorms will generally be between 18Z and 02Z (1 pm to 9 pm) when the better forcing aligns with the shear and instability. Surface winds will remain from the south, with westerly flow aloft. Thus, curved hodographs suggest a low end tornado threat, along with the damaging straight line wind potential. While our confidence in the setup has increased, there are still some caveats to the threat for severe storms. The main source of uncertainty is the lack of low level forcing. Without a defined front moving through the area, and based on the current thinking that the QLCS to our west dissipates, the main source of surface lift will be outflow boundaries which are difficult to pinpoint. Additionally, some guidance does suggest the influence of the subtropical ridge to our southeast will suppress convection and limit storm organization. That said, there`s enough consensus to continue the severe threat for the area today, with damaging straight line winds, a tornado or two, and hail. The better chance will be over the northern half of the area, where the better forcing aloft exists, though the severe threat is for the whole area. Any lingering storms should wind down this evening as we lose daytime heating and the shortwave lifts out of the area. The trough over the Plains will make very little progress through at least Wednesday, with several shortwaves continuing to eject around the base of the trough. This will keep rain chances high over the next couple of days, though pinpointing the timing of storms is challenging. Given the setup, we`ll likely see another QLCS develop to our west and then move through the area or generate an outflow boundary for convective initiation to occur over the local area. Either way, expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Flow aloft will be more southwesterly tomorrow, so wind shear should be mainly unidirectional, suggesting more of a straight line wind threat on Wednesday. /73 Thursday through Monday An upper trof extending from the central Plains to across the Great Lakes takes on a meridional orientation and amplifies over the eastern CONUS through Friday. A weak and poorly defined surface trof will be over the southern portion of the forecast area Thursday morning and appears to drift a bit northward through the afternoon before dissipating. A surface low located near Arkansas Thursday morning lifts off to the northeastern states, and in the process brings a cold front through the forecast area on Friday. A shortwave trof embedded within the larger scale pattern will move across the region on Thursday, and with the weak surface trof over the area and plenty of deep layer moisture in place, have gone with mostly categorical pops for the forecast area. Likely to categorical pops follow for Friday as the cold front moves through, then dry conditions are expected for Saturday. The large upper trof pattern over the eastern states persists through Sunday then finally begins to move off into the western Atlantic on Monday. A weak reinforcing cold front moves into the area on Sunday and lingers into Monday, which will support slight chance pops for both days. /29 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 A line of showers and storms continues to track across the area from west to east. While some of these pop up thunderstorms along the coast could produce brief downpours, lightning, and gusty winds, the severe storm threat will remain north of I-10 and east of I-65 this afternoon. Largely VFR to MVFR CIGs through the remainder of the day with prevailing southerly winds. Another round of showers and storms could develop this afternoon and provide a brief impacts to terminals around 00-04 UTC, but storm coverage is uncertain so PROB30s are added just to acknowledge this potential. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through Thursday, becoming westerly and then northerly Friday into the weekend. /73 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 70 88 70 84 69 85 62 84 / 30 70 40 90 40 70 10 10 Pensacola 74 87 74 84 74 85 66 83 / 30 50 30 80 60 70 30 10 Destin 76 88 76 85 76 85 68 85 / 20 40 30 80 60 70 30 10 Evergreen 68 89 68 86 67 83 59 85 / 30 60 40 90 50 70 10 10 Waynesboro 66 86 67 82 67 81 59 82 / 40 60 50 90 40 60 10 10 Camden 66 85 68 82 66 80 59 81 / 50 50 50 90 50 70 10 10 Crestview 69 90 70 87 69 85 60 86 / 30 70 30 90 50 80 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob
