| National Weather Service Forecast for:
Shalimar FL Issued by: National Weather Service Mobile, AL |
||||||||||||||||||
| Updated: 10:53 pm CDT May 18, 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Shalimar, FL | ||||||||||||||||||
|
| Overnight |
Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. |
| Sunday |
Sunny, with a high near 86. Northwest wind around 5 mph. |
| Sunday Night |
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 68. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
| Monday |
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 85. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon. |
| Monday Night |
Mostly clear, with a low around 68. Calm wind. |
| Tuesday |
Sunny, with a high near 84. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night |
Mostly clear, with a low around 68. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
| Wednesday |
Sunny, with a high near 84. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night |
Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
| Thursday |
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. |
| Thursday Night |
Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. |
| Friday |
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. |
| Friday Night |
Mostly clear, with a low around 71. |
| Saturday |
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Shalimar FL.
274
FXUS64 KMOB 190449
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1149 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Convection over interior areas associated with an outflow boundary
will diminish overnight while progressing southeastward. IFR
conditions can be expected with the convection, and patchy fog is
also possible late tonight mainly over south central Alabama. VFR
conditions are otherwise anticipated. /29
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1054 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024/
..New UPDATE...
UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Convection over interior southwest and south central Alabama is
associated with an outflow boundary, and this convection is
anticipated to weaken to dissipation through the overnight hours
while slowly progressing southeastward. Have updated pops to
account for this along with other mainly modest adjustments. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 649 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024/
.New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
A few showers and storms are possible over south central and
interior portions of southwestern Alabama as well as the western
Florida panhandle this evening, otherwise dry conditions are
expected through Sunday. Patchy fog may develop late tonight over
much of the area, but otherwise outside of the possible convection
VFR conditions are anticipated. Light southwest to westerly winds
tonight become northwesterly at 5 to 10 knots on Sunday. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024/
New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
A few showers and storms are possible over south central and
interior portions of southwestern Alabama as well as the western
Florida panhandle this evening, otherwise dry conditions are
expected through Sunday. Patchy fog may develop late tonight over
much of the area, but otherwise outside of the possible convection
VFR conditions are anticipated. Light southwest to westerly winds
tonight become northwesterly at 5 to 10 knots on Sunday. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Dry conditions will persist for the rest of the afternoon and into
the early evening hours tonight, but High-Res models are in decent
agreement in moving the remnants of the mesoscale system currently
noted on satellite over northern MS and western TN to the south
across AL later in the evening hours and possibly even into the
western after midnight. It appears that convection associated with
this feature will likely be weakening as it drops south across the
region, but a few thunderstorms will be possible this evening into
the early predawn morning hours on Sunday in association with this
feature. There could be an isolated strong storm, but for the most
part, the airmass has been pretty much worked over and instabilities
will be rather low, so no widespread organized severe weather is
anticipated. The activity should also be weakening and moving fairly
quickly to the south, so additional widespread heavy rainfall is not
expected either. After any convection associated with this feature
fully dissipates by early Sunday morning, we expect a dry day on
Sunday with no PoP (for a change).
Low temperatures tonight should range from the mid 60s over most
interior locations, with upper 60s to low 70s expected close to and
along the coast. High temperatures on Sunday will rebound to near to
above seasonal norms, ranging from the mid to upper 80s for most
locations, with a few lower 80s possible along the beaches. DS/12
SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
An eastward tilted upper level ridge has moved over the Mississippi
River, with an upper level trough off the East Coast. Shortwave
energy is directed south over the Southeast through the Short Term
with this configuration in response, but with a drier airmass moving
over the region, no rain is expected. Temperatures quickly rise back
above seasonal norms, with mid 80s to around 90 expected for high
temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Low temperatures in the mid 60s to
low 70s are expected over most of the forecast area through the
period, except for low 60s over northeastern-most portions of the
forecast area.
Even with an increasing tidal cycle into mid week, light and
variable flow south of the coast will bring weak onshore swell and a
low risk of rip currents into mid week.
/16
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Into Thursday, the upper ridge shifts east a bit, then flattens
Friday into Saturday, as an upper level shortwave trough approaches,
then passes over the Southeast. A surface ridge builds west over the
Gulf of Mexico mid week on, with organized southerly flow moving
Gulf moisture inland. Guidance the last few days continues to be
inconsistent with the amount and placement of the moisture return.
The latest guidance is placing the better moisture further north
over the Southeast, and with that, keeping better PoPs for Friday
and Saturday generally north of Highway 84. Have less confidence
with this placement due to the inconsistent moisture placement
recently. Temperatures remain at or above seasonal norms through the
Extended.
/16
MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
A light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow prevails
through tonight, becoming light and variable early next week. A
light southerly to southeasterly flow is established Tuesday
afternoon and continues through Wednesday night. The onshore flow
increases slightly during the late part of the week and going into
next weekend. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 67 88 66 88 68 87 67 86 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 69 87 69 85 70 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
Destin 71 85 71 85 71 84 71 83 / 10 10 0 10 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 65 86 64 88 64 89 63 89 / 30 10 0 10 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 64 87 63 90 66 90 65 90 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 64 85 63 86 64 88 64 89 / 40 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
Crestview 65 88 64 88 64 88 62 89 / 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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